Day 85 - Odd Day, Missed Opportunity, No Trade

October 8th, 2026

Today was another frustrating day, but not because I lost money. I actually didn’t take a single trade. The frustrating part is that there was a perfectly good opportunity right in front of me, and I watched it happen without doing anything.

For most of the morning, there really wasn’t much going on. It seems like a lot of the bigger moves lately have been happening overnight, leaving fewer opportunities during the regular trading session. I’m glad I have my system because it seems to be working, but that doesn’t make missing a good trade any less annoying.

The big move came around 11:45 or 11:50 this morning. Out of nowhere, the MNQ dropped 124 points in a single candle. That’s an enormous move, especially for that time of day. I was watching it happen in real time, and instead of entering, I hesitated.

The reason I hesitated was the MES. I’ve recently started using the MES alongside the MNQ to confirm my trades, and one of my rules is to avoid entering when the MES is touching its second standard deviation band. At the time, the MES was extremely close to that level. Looking back, I’m not even sure it technically touched it. I don’t think it did, but it was close enough to make me nervous.

And that’s where the frustration comes in.

Everything happened so quickly. One enormous candle appeared, and suddenly the market was dropping. I remember thinking, where did this come from? Why is the market suddenly falling 124 points at 11:50 in the morning? It caught me off guard, and by the time I had processed everything, the opportunity was slipping away.

Day 85 Travel Poster

Looking back at the charts, I believe I could have taken the trade. Based on how the move played out, I estimate it could have made me around $300. That’s not a life changing amount of money, but it’s certainly not nothing either. Especially when I’m trying to build my account back up and become more consistent.

I made about $200 over the previous two days, so another $300 today would have been a nice addition. It would have put me much closer to where I started last week and given me a little more confidence that I’m moving in the right direction.

Instead, I finished the day with nothing.

But I guess there’s another way to look at it. I didn’t lose any money either. I didn’t force a trade, and I didn’t enter something simply because I was afraid of missing out. That’s something I’ve struggled with in the past, and I suppose I should give myself some credit for that.

The problem now is figuring out the difference between being disciplined and being overly cautious.

I don’t want to start second guessing every trade, especially when my system is giving me a valid entry. At the same time, I don’t want to abandon the rules that have been helping me avoid unnecessary losses. That’s the balance I’m still trying to figure out.

I think this is where experience is going to matter. I need to get more comfortable making decisions when the market moves quickly, especially when something unexpected happens. A 124 point candle is intimidating, but if the conditions are valid, I need to trust the system rather than let the size of the move scare me away.

And if the conditions aren’t valid, then I need to be comfortable letting the trade go, regardless of how much money I could have made.

That’s easier said than done, of course.

The encouraging thing is that I still believe my strategy is improving. Using the MES for confirmation and avoiding trades around the middle of the VWAP bands has helped me become much more selective. I’m trading less, but the trades I do take seem to be better opportunities.

I just need to make sure that being selective doesn’t turn into being afraid to enter.

So today wasn’t a losing day, but it certainly felt like a missed opportunity. I’m disappointed because I could really use that extra money, and watching a potential $300 trade disappear isn’t fun.

Still, I have to remind myself that there will be another opportunity. I can’t make every trade, and I certainly can’t expect to capture every move.

The goal isn’t to catch every winning trade. It’s to consistently execute the valid trades my system gives me.

That’s what I need to work on next. Not finding another strategy, not adding more indicators, and not changing everything because I missed one move.

Just getting better at following the system I’ve already built.

And hopefully, the next time a 124 point candle appears out of nowhere, I’ll be a little more prepared.

Total Profit: $0