October 13th, 2026
October 13 was easily my worst trading day of the week. Looking back, I think this was going to be a losing day regardless of what I did. However, it certainly didn’t have to be as bad as it was.
The biggest problem wasn’t necessarily the market itself. It was my indecision and the fact that I’m still trying to figure out exactly how to execute my strategy consistently. I know what I’m looking for, and my backtesting has shown promising results, but there’s still a disconnect between knowing the rules and actually following them in real time.
Fortunately, I didn’t revenge trade or try to force my way back into profitability. That’s one positive I can take away from the day. Unfortunately, the losses were significant enough that I’m still down overall for the month. That’s frustrating, especially when I know the strategy has potential.
Day 88 Travel Poster
The first potential trade came around 8:45 AM, and this is where things became confusing.
MNQ was presenting a possible entry, but MES was already approaching or touching its second standard-deviation VWAP band. Under the rules I was using at the time, that created uncertainty. Should I enter because MNQ was showing a setup, or should I stay out because MES was already extended?
This is exactly the kind of situation that has been causing problems with my strategy. I was spending too much time trying to interpret the relationship between the two markets instead of having a clear, mechanical rule telling me what to do.
Ultimately, the trade didn’t work out anyway. Even with a better entry, it likely would have been a loss.
The result was negative 55 points on each contract.
The next trade wasn’t any better. Price moved against my position again, resulting in another loss of approximately 44 points.
At that point, there wasn’t much reason to continue trading. The setups weren’t following through, and trying to recover the losses would have introduced unnecessary risk.
Sometimes the market simply doesn’t cooperate with a strategy, and this was one of those days.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned from October 13, it’s that indecision can be just as damaging as a bad entry.
I keep running into situations where I think I know what my strategy is, but when the market presents something slightly different, I start questioning everything. Should MES be at the same VWAP band as MNQ? What happens if one market is already extended? Is this still a valid trade?
These questions need to have answers before I enter a position, not while I’m trying to manage one.
That’s why I’m making adjustments to my rules for next week. I want a strategy that’s straightforward enough to execute without constantly second-guessing myself. Either the conditions are met, or they aren’t. There shouldn’t be a complicated debate happening every time an opportunity appears.
Total Profit: $-449
MNQ Chart
MES Chart
