Day 87 - The Strategy Works

October 12th, 2026

Another profitable day, but once again, I should have made more money. That seems to be a recurring theme lately. The frustrating part is that my strategy is working. I’ve seen it through backtesting, and the results have been consistently encouraging. The biggest challenge isn’t necessarily finding profitable trades anymore. It’s knowing when to enter, when to stay out, and, most importantly, trusting the system enough to let the trades play out.

My strategy has evolved quite a bit. I’m now focusing primarily on trading when price moves outside the first standard deviation bands of VWAP, rather than getting caught up in the choppy price action around the center. This has made a noticeable difference in my backtesting. I’ve found that knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to enter.

One of the biggest adjustments I’ve been working on is using MES to confirm my MNQ trades. In theory, it makes perfect sense. I want both markets moving in the same direction before entering a position. The problem is that they don’t always align perfectly. Sometimes MNQ presents a valid entry while MES hasn’t confirmed the move yet. By the time MES catches up, the opportunity may already be gone, or I’m entering much later than I should.

On the other hand, waiting for MES confirmation can also save me from taking a bad trade. That’s what makes this so difficult to figure out. There’s a balance between being too cautious and entering too early. I don’t want to abandon MES confirmation because I genuinely believe it adds value to my strategy, but I also don’t want it preventing me from taking perfectly reasonable setups. Finding that balance has been one of my main priorities.

Last week wasn’t profitable overall, largely because of a mistake I made on Tuesday. That was frustrating, especially considering how well the strategy performed in backtesting. I’ve been spending a lot of time reviewing these situations, trying to determine whether the issue is with the rules themselves or simply how I’m executing them. I think I’m getting closer to figuring that out, and I’m hoping the adjustments will make a difference going forward.

Day 87 Travel Poster

Looking at today’s chart, the market was moving downward, and there were several opportunities that fit my strategy.

I wouldn’t have entered the initial move because MES wasn’t confirming the direction. Under my rules, that was the correct decision. However, around 8:45–8:50, another opportunity presented itself, and this was where I should have entered.

Had I followed the setup and held the position according to my rules, the first contract could have captured approximately 42 points, while the runner could have added another 32 points.

The next two setups also worked out favorably. The second trade offered approximately 22 points on the first contract and 5 points on the runner. The third presented another opportunity for 21 points on the first contract and 7 points on the runner.

In hindsight, all three setups offered profitable outcomes under the strategy. Of course, recognizing that after the fact is much easier than executing it in real time. Still, these were the kinds of opportunities I’ve been studying and backtesting, and they were exactly what I was supposed to be looking for.

Instead, I finished the day with just $20 in profit.

It’s better than losing money, obviously, but it’s frustrating when I can look back at the chart and see how much more I could have made by simply following my own rules.

At this point, I think my biggest obstacle is hesitation. I’ve done the backtesting, I’ve developed a strategy that appears to have an edge, and I’m becoming much better at recognizing the conditions that I want to trade. Yet when the opportunity actually presents itself, I sometimes hesitate or cut the trade short because I’m nervous about losing money.

I need to work on that.

There’s always going to be uncertainty in trading. Even a setup that looks perfect can fail, and no amount of backtesting will eliminate that risk. But if I’m constantly second-guessing my entries or exiting positions before my rules tell me to, I’m not really giving the strategy a fair chance to perform.

That’s something I need to correct.

The encouraging part is that I’m continuing to make progress. I’m trading less, becoming more selective, and understanding the relationship between MNQ and MES much better than I did before. The strategy itself is becoming more refined, and I genuinely believe I’m moving in the right direction.

Now I need to bring that same level of discipline to my execution.

Today’s result: +$20. A profitable day, but another reminder that having a strategy and consistently following it are two very different things.

Total Profit: $20