October 1st, 2026

Today felt like the beginning of an important adjustment to my strategy. I’m becoming much more convinced that trading around the middle of the range—especially near the 0.50 Fibonacci level—is usually not worth the risk. That area tends to be much less predictable, and I’m starting to see that I don’t need to participate in every move.

Instead, I’m focusing more on trades that develop around the 1 ATR / VWAP deviation area, while also making sure that MES is moving in the same direction as MNQ. That additional confirmation seems to eliminate a lot of the weaker setups.

Today was another good example of why this may be a better approach.

Day 80 Travel Poster

I took two main trades. The first came around 8:50. Price dropped almost immediately, moving roughly 49 points in one bar. I took the first contract off and let the second contract continue, but it eventually came back and I exited the runner for about 5 points.

I then got another opportunity to re-enter. That trade worked much better, producing approximately 58 points on the first contract and 114 points on the runner.

What stood out most, though, was what I did not trade.

Under my previous strategy, I likely would have taken another setup around the 0.50 Fibonacci level later in the session. That trade would have lost and given back a significant portion of what I had already made.

By simply avoiding that area, I kept the profits from the higher-quality trades.

That is becoming one of the biggest lessons from this process: I do not need more trades. I need better trades.

Waiting for price to move away from the middle, looking for opportunities around the outer VWAP/ATR deviation areas, and requiring MES and MNQ to agree dramatically reduces the number of setups—but that may actually be the advantage.

Trading less can mean making more, especially if the trades I eliminate are the exact trades that have historically caused the biggest drawdowns.

Today reinforced the idea that the goal is not to constantly be in the market. The goal is to wait until the market gives me a setup that is actually worth taking.

Total Profit: $489.40

MNQ Chart